HENRY LIU SIGNAL NOV 09

NEWS TRADING

Monday November 2, 2009

[5:30pm]

UK Manufacturing PMI BUY 52.1 SELL 48.00 GBP/USD

5:30pm

GBP

Manufacturing PMI

53.7

50.1

49.5

Our focus will be on the Manufacturing PMI number from UK today, it
is expected to be just above 50, which is considered as the medium
point.

We are looking for a difference or deviation of 2.0, and remember
that, This is a leading indicator and its impact may affect the
upcoming trend of this currency for the weeks to come, or at least
for this month. If our BUY/SELL numbers are hit, we can expect
GBP/USD to move 50 pips within the hour.

[11:00pm ] Monday

US ISM Manufacturing PMI BUY 55.5 SELL 50.0 USD/JPY

55.7

53.1

52.6

With US ISM Manufacturing release today, we'll be looking for a
minimum of 2.5 of deviation either way. In the event we get a
better than expected release, this could once again fuel the
sentiment of risk appetite, thus USD could remain under pressure;
however, if the release is negative, below the medium 50 level, we
could see stronger USD and stronger JPY throughout the rest of the
US session. Since this is a leading indicator, investors pay more
attention to this release for signs of the direction of November.

[11:30am] THUESDAY 3 Nov 09

RBA Rate Decision BUY 3.75% SELL 3.25% AUD/USD

3.50%

3.50%

3.25%

RBA started the rate hike cycle during last rate decision and now
analysts believe RBA will likely to hike rates by another 25 basis
point to 3.50% today. Should RBA hike rates by 50 basis point
instead of 25, we should see AUD/USD break upwards and possibly
retest some resistance areas; however, if RBA decides to keep rates
unchanged at the current level, we could see AUD/USD drop below the
0.8800 level.