[8.30AM THURSDAY 12NOV]
Employment Change
[Open Detail]
ACTUAL 24.5K
forecast -10.1K
PREVIOUS 39.8K
TARGET ;50 PIP
AU Employment Changes BUY 15K SELL -40K AUD/USD
As we know this news release is equivalent to US Nonfarm Payroll
changes but for Australia, and it is a high impact report as the
job's market have a direct influence over the health of the economy,
which affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA
monetary policy. If the actual release is better, it would be good
for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual
release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking
to SELL AUD/USD.
The safe deviation that we are looking for is at least of 30K.
Historically a 30K of difference has produced about 45 pips of
movement in the direction of the difference about 75% of the time,
which is more than enough for us to predict market reaction.
One other important news to pay attention to is the Unemployment
Rate, which is expected at 5.8%. If we do not get a conflict with
the Employment Changes, then we will proceed with the plan.
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