HENRY LIU SIGNAL

NEWS TRADING

Thursday October 29, 2009

[8:30am NY Time]

US Adv. GDP q/q BUY 3.5% SELL 2.9% USD/JPY or USD/CHF

8:30am US Adv. GDP q/q 3.2%(E) -0.7%(P) 0.3(S) 50M

E = Expected
P = Previous
S = Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement in Pips if surprise factor is reached

Our focus tomorrow will be on the first quarterly release of U.S.
GDP numbers. Analysts are already saying that we could be looking
at upward surprises as recent market sentiment is at all year high.
We are looking for a 0.3% deviation on the expected 3.2%. Therefore
if we get a 3.5% on the advanced 3rd quarter GDP, it would be US
Dollar positive. We will BUY USD/JPY. However, if we get a 2.9%
release, then we would be SELLING USD/JPY. With USD being regarded
as safe-haven currency, if we get a worse than expected number, we
might still see USD getting stronger as traders scramble to BUY US
Treasuries, making USD stronger than most european currencies such
as Euro and Sterling.